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Drift and Bounce

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2026

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
2.4%
Max Drawdown
24.0%
Trades
57
Win Trades
63.2%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
75.0%
Subscribe $75/mo

About this strategy

A systematic, long-only US-equity strategy running two independent engines side by side:

- Drift — a concentrated momentum rotation in highly liquid large/mid-cap US names, re-ranked on a fixed multi-week schedule. It holds market leaders while they lead, and steps aside to cash when a rules-based regime filter detects a sustained market downtrend.

- Bounce — a short-term mean-reversion engine that buys statistically extreme washouts in healthy, still-uptrending names and sells into the rebound — deliberately throttled so it never loads up into a falling market.

The two engines draw down at different times (trend and reversion rarely break together) and capital is mechanically rebalanced between them.


RISK CHARACTER

- Drawdown control is the primary objective; return is its consequence — the aim is to beat the broad market over full cycles while keeping drawdowns shallower than buy-and-hold. The regime filter (Drift moves to cash in sustained downtrends) is the main drawdown brake.

- A fully-invested long equity strategy — expect equity-level volatility, quiet sideways stretches, and the occasional sharp week. Built to compound across cycles, not to win every month.

- No leverage, no margin, no options, no shorting, no discretionary overrides — only long shares of liquid US stocks.

- Every rule was validated on 27 years of point-in-time data spanning four major bear markets.


ACADEMIC & RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS

Drift — cross-sectional and time-series momentum (among the most replicated effects in finance):
- Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers, Journal of Finance.
- Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen (2013), Value and Momentum Everywhere, Journal of Finance.
- Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen (2012), Time Series Momentum, Journal of Financial Economics — trend persistence (the basis of the regime filter).
- Faber (2007), A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation, Journal of Wealth Management — the moving-average regime/trend filter.

Bounce — short-term reversal / overreaction in equities:
- De Bondt & Thaler (1985), Does the Stock Market Overreact?, Journal of Finance.
- Jegadeesh (1990), Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns, Journal of Finance.
- Lehmann (1990), Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- Lo & MacKinlay (1990), When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?, Review of Financial Studies.
- Connors & Alvarez (2008), Short Term Trading Strategies That Work — the practitioner short-period-RSI oversold rule inside a trend filter.

Combining them — momentum and short-term reversal are distinct, well-documented effects on opposite horizons (multi-month trend versus days-long reversal), so they diversify each other: Markowitz (1952), Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance.

Momentum Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202612.8-15.63.93.52.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/5/2026
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age93 days
C2 Rank928
Rank at C2 %Top 7.2%
Rank ##189
What it tradesStocks
# Trades57
# Profitable36
% Profitable63.2%
Avg trade duration24.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.9%
drawdown periodJune 23, 2026 - July 29, 2026
Cumul. Return2.4%
Avg win$221
Avg loss$246

Ratios

W:L ratio1.55
Sharpe Ratio0.34
Sortino Ratio0.49
Calmar Ratio0.58

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.51
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life4.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss54.5%
Chance of 20% account loss15.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)421
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)446
C2 Score928
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)445

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187575
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$246
Avg Win$221
# Winners36
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,170
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,970
Num Months Winners3
# Losers21
% Winners63.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct33

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table4

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)35716.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)595.28
Avg Trade Length24.80
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.69
Daily leverage (max)0.85

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta1.55
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-108.06
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.94
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.56
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df2
t0.35
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.34
Sortino ratio1.36
Upside Potential Ratio3.36
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms1
N of observations3
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.05
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.01
r-0.95
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error1
t(b)-3.15
p(b)0.90
t(a)2.93
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-14.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.09
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df2
t0.33
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.31
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio3.24
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms1
N of observations3
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.05
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.01
r-0.95
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error1
t(b)-3.01
p(b)0.90
t(a)2.77
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-15.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.97
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.16
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df65
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.33
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio9.75
Upside part of mean2.59
Downside part of mean-2.43
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms33
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error64
t(b)4.55
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.11
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean0.09
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df65
t0.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio9.44
Upside part of mean2.56
Downside part of mean-2.46
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms33
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error64
t(b)4.49
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.20
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations66
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.03
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-370660512
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)36
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.75
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.66

Trading record

Placed 135 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CAT long4Aug 31, 2026Sep 4, 2026$52
MRVL long15Aug 28, 2026Sep 4, 2026$90
KLAC long18Aug 21, 2026Sep 4, 2026$26
GEV long3Aug 24, 2026Sep 2, 2026($55)
XOM long21Aug 27, 2026Aug 31, 2026$79
AVGO long8Aug 14, 2026Aug 28, 2026($163)
NVDA long15Aug 18, 2026Aug 27, 2026$138
TXN long5Aug 3, 2026Aug 24, 2026($66)
UNH long8Aug 19, 2026Aug 24, 2026$82
AMZN long12Aug 17, 2026Aug 19, 2026$68
AAPL long11Jul 31, 2026Aug 18, 2026$29
V long9Aug 10, 2026Aug 13, 2026$47
XOM long21Aug 5, 2026Aug 10, 2026$167
LLY long2Aug 3, 2026Aug 5, 2026$101
CAT long4Jul 28, 2026Aug 3, 2026($24)
COHR long2Jul 23, 2026Aug 3, 2026($122)
GEV long3Jul 22, 2026Jul 31, 2026$11
NVDA long17Jul 27, 2026Jul 31, 2026$75
MRVL long20Jul 29, 2026Jul 31, 2026$411
V long10Jul 23, 2026Jul 27, 2026$107
BRK.B long7Jul 9, 2026Jul 24, 2026($13)
CSCO long31Jul 15, 2026Jul 23, 2026$25
CAT long4Jul 16, 2026Jul 22, 2026$66
TXN long12Jul 17, 2026Jul 21, 2026$90
LLY long3Jul 14, 2026Jul 17, 2026$57
GOOGL long10Jul 13, 2026Jul 15, 2026$186
CSCO long33Jul 6, 2026Jul 10, 2026$144
QCOM long19Jun 25, 2026Jul 10, 2026($553)
AAPL long13Jun 26, 2026Jul 1, 2026$212
GOOGL long11Jun 29, 2026Jun 30, 2026$59

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.